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Maricopa Market Update March 26, 2016

It was an average week in sales but the number of homes currently under contract remains sky high. To begin with there is currently 425 subdivision homes available on MLS listed at an average of $94.43 per square foot. 257 homes are currently under contract up from 253 the week prior and one of the highest number of “pendings” that I can ever remember in this market, and 25 homes sold over the last week, selling at an average of $80.42 per square foot, bringing our YTD numbers now to 279 homes sold at an average of $85.06 per square foot. By comparison through the same time period last year, 288 homes had sold at an average of $76.83 per square foot, so we are tracking at 3% drop in homes sold but a 10.7% increase in the average sold price per square foot.

I had a reader make the point that the measure of square footage is not a true measure of a home’s value and he is absolutely correct as so many other factors come into play,
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Maricopa Market Update March 19, 2016

The number of available homes declines slightly once again while the number of homes accepting contracts continues to climb, and it was a strong week in sales. 412 subdivision homes are now currently listed on the MLS, down from last weeks number of 435, and listed at an average of $94.99 per square foot. 253 homes are currently under contract, up from 241 a week prior, and it was a good week in sales as 36 homes closed escrow over the last 7 days selling at an average of $84.65 per square foot and bringing our YTD numbers now to 254 subdivision homes sold at an average of $85.52 per square foot. By comparison, through the same time period last year, 259 subdivision homes had sold at an average of $76.91 per square foot, so while we remain down slightly from last year’s sales total, we are tracking at just over an 11% increase in the average sold price per square foot.

So let’s take a look at what is proving to be a challenging sub market within the broader Maricopa market and that is the subdivision of Province, the 55+ community here in Maricopa and a community of which that just 10 years ago was rated as the top 55+ community in the entire country.
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Maricopa Market Update March 12, 2016

The number of available homes drops once again over the last 7 days albeit slightly now standing at 435 subdivision homes listed on the MLS at an average of $95.21 per square foot. The number of homes under contract continues to increase with 241 homes now pending close of escrow and it was another decent week in sales with 25 homes closing escrow over the last week, selling at an average of $82.80 per square foot and bringing our YTD numbers now to 219 subdivision homes sold at an average of $85.36 per square foot. Buyer demand has felt good all year and many industry experts have predicted that 2016 will be a strong year. Well based on the current number of homes under contract compared with the number of homes currently available, there is less than 90 days worth of supply, and that measure is considered to be the sign of a balanced and healthy residential real estate market by nearly every industry analyst.

So let’s take a look at some market data for February 2016 vs February 2015 and some data for the first 60 days of the year versus last year.
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Maricopa Market Update March 5, 2016

The number of available homes remained consistent over the last 7 days with 444 subdivision homes currently listed on the MLS at an average of $95.47 per square foot. 220 homes remain under contract, down from 222 the week prior and it was a strong week in sales with 39 homes closing escrow over the last week, selling at an average of $85.56 per square foot and bringing our YTD numbers now to 206 subdivision homes sold at an average of $85.67 per square foot. By comparison through the same time last year, 201 homes had sold at an average of $76.90 per square foot, and I will note that this is the first time that 2016 sales have topped 2015’s numbers, thanks to the last couple of weeks of strong sales numbers. There also remains a 10%+ discrepancy in the average list price per square foot, versus the average sold price per square foot, so sellers are coming off their original list price numbers suggesting we are still in a buyers market despite the increase in demand.

Next week I will have a more detailed analysis of February 2016 and the first 60 days of the year, but here is a precursory look at the sell through numbers for February. In total, 97 subdivision homes sold in February and the breakdown is as follows:
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Maricopa Market Update February 27, 2016

The number of available homes listed on the MLS falls by roughly 5% and it was a strong week in sales. 441 subdivision homes are now listed on the MLS, down from 466 the week prior and listed at an average of $95.67 per square foot. 222 homes are currently under contract which mirrors last weeks number, and 34 homes sold over the last 7 days, selling at an average of $79.51 per square foot and bringing our YTD numbers now to 167 homes sold at an average of $84.83 per square foot. By comparison through this same time period last year, 182 homes had sold at an average of $76.41 per square foot, so currently the market is tracking at an 8.2% drop in sales but a an 11% increase in the average sold price per square foot.

So let’s take a look at sell through over the last 180 days. I will break this down into four categories; single story homes with and without pools; and two story homes with and without pools. I have also excluded the subdivision of Province, and I have filtered for homes built 2014 or earlier so as to exclude new builds. I have also separated the sell through dates into two 90 day periods; Aug. 2015 – November 2015 and November 2015 – February 2016. Here are the numbers:
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Maricopa Market Update February 20, 2016

The number of homes receiving contracts over the last week jumped up by more than 12%, and the number of actively listed subdivision homes are on the increase as well. 222 subdivision homes in Maricopa are now under contract pending close of escrow, up from 197 the week prior and up from 176 just three weeks ago. In terms of active listings, 466 homes are currently available on the MLS, up from 448 the week prior and listed at an average of $96.03 per square foot, but it was just another average week in sales with 20 homes closing escrow and selling at an average of $82.88 per square foot, bringing our YTD numbers now to 131 subdivision homes sold at an average of $86.46 per square foot.
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Maricopa Market Update February 13, 2016

For the first time this year, the number of available homes dropped slightly to 448 subdivision homes now listed on the MLS, down from 454 the week prior, and listed at an average of $95.86 per square foot. The number of homes going under contract certainly impacted that number though as homes pending jumped by more than 10% to 197 homes under contract, up from 179 the week prior, but it was just an average week in sales as 18 homes sold over the last 7 days, selling at an average of $95.57 per square foot and bringing our YTD numbers now to 113 subdivision homes sold at an average of $87.33 per square foot.

So the final MLS January numbers are in and once again the trajectory is positive. The average sold price of a single family detached home in Maricopa increased by more than 8% to $167,489, up from $154,242 last January. The number of homes sold also increased by more than 8% with 90 SFD homes selling in Maricopa this January versus the 83 homes sold in January 2015. The average days on market dropped by 19% and there was a resurgence
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Maricopa Market Update February 6, 2016

There was a one week pause in the ascent of available homes as 454 subdivision homes are once again listed on the MLS at an average of $95.96 per square foot. The number of homes under contract however jumped by more than 11% with 179 homes now pending, up from 160 the week prior but it was a soft week in sales as just 18 homes closed escrow, selling at an average of $79.45 per square foot and bringing our YTD numbers now to 100 homes sold at an average of $85.62 per square foot. By comparison, through the same time period last year, 105 homes had sold, selling at an average of $75.65 per square foot, so while we are lagging in units sold, the market is up just over 13% in the average sold price per square foot. In terms of the current inventory mix, 94% are traditional resale homes, 4% are distressed (HUD, Short Sale, Bank Owned), and 2% are new builds. In terms of subdivisions, here’s a breakdown of 6 of the larger subdivisions in town:
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Maricopa Market Update January 30, 2016

The number of available homes are once again on the ascent albeit at a slightly slower pace this week. 454 subdivision homes are now listed on the MLS, up from 441 the week prior, and listed at an average of $96.06 per square foot. 160 homes are currently under contract, down from 162 the week prior, and it was a good week in sales with 33 homes selling over the last 7 days, selling at an average of $92.46 per square foot, and bringing our YTD numbers now to 82 homes sold at an average of $86.77 per square foot. Just a quick note here, the weekly average sold price per square foot of $92.46 is the strongest selling average in 9 years. Now obviously this is just a week’s sample size but stronger demand, a growing commercial infrastructure and consumer confidence in the local economy are all current contributing factors to our strengthening home values. By comparison and oddly enough, 82 homes were also sold in January of 2015, however those homes sold at an average of $76.49 per square foot, so while sales were even with last year, the market realized a 13.4% increase in the monthly average sold price per square foot.

So let’s take a look at the breakdown of the January’s sales numbers by category.
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Maricopa Market Update January 23, 2016

Another week and another uptick in the number of available homes with 441 subdivision homes now listed on the MLS, up from 424 the week prior, and listed at an average of $95.68 per square foot. 162 homes are currently under contract, up from 157, and 24 homes sold over the last 7 days, selling at an average of $82.04 per square foot and bringing our YTD numbers now to 49 homes sold at an average of $83.55 per square foot. Just by comparison, we are off of last year’s sales pace by 10% but the average sold price per square foot has increased by over 9% from last years average. Obviously though these numbers are extrapolated from a very small sample size so it’s much to early to predict any trends however buyer demand has felt really good since the beginning of the year, which may have something to do with the fact that interest rates are likely to tick up in the last half of this year but as we have discussed earlier, the 30 year FRM (fixed rate mortgage) is tied to the yields of 10 year treasury notes and since the DOW has been plunging, treasuries are enjoying strong demand so actually 30 year FRM rates have dropped slightly in the last week. Buyers should definitely take advantage of this current dynamic because rates under 4% are historically low as any seasoned buyer can attest to.
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