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Maricopa Market Update January 16, 2016

The number of available subdivision homes jumped up by more than 7% once again over the last week with 424 homes now listed on the MLS at an average of $95.60 per square foot. The number of homes under contract jumped up as well with 157 homes now in pending status, up from 138 the week prior, and 19 homes sold over the last 7 days, selling at an average of $85.09 per square foot and bringing our YTD numbers now to 29 homes sold at an average of $83.36 per square foot. It’s been a busy 2016 so far with the number of available homes increasing by nearly 20% and homes receiving accepted contracts up by nearly 15%.

So let’s take a look at the current inventory mix of new homes, distressed homes and traditional resale homes and
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Maricopa Market Update January 9, 2016

The number of available homes jumped up by more than 6% over the last 7 days with 394 subdivision homes now currently listed on the MLS at an average of $96.35 per square foot. The number of homes also rose to 138, up from 127 the week prior but it was sluggish first week of sales as only 10 homes sold over the last week, selling at an average of $82.14 per square foot. The increase in active listings was not unexpected and I think you will see that number rise into the mid 400’s over the next 90 days as a result of some of our Canadian neighbors begin to divest themselves of the market down here and taking their investments home which will bring a favorable return for them considering the current exchange rate. A wider selection of homes is always good news for folks currently looking to purchase, and interest rates continue to remain at historic lows although that could change later in the year based on the Fed’s action last December so if you are in the market and interest rates are a determining factor, I would suggest making that purchase in the first six months of this year.

So how about 2015? In short, it was a good year for the Maricopa residential market. 1,534 subdivision homes
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Maricopa Market Update January 3, 2016

The number of available subdivision homes has remained consistent over the last 14 days with 369 homes now listed on the MLS at an average of $96.44 per square foot. 128 homes are currently under contract, down from 148 two weeks prior, and 42 homes have sold over the last two weeks, selling at an average of 84.11 per square foot. So since I last posted an update, the year has passed and a quick look at the 2015 sales shows that we ended the year with 1,503 homes sold at an average of $78.70 per square foot. Based on those numbers, the 2015 market realized a 14% gain in sales and a 4.7% gain in the average sold price per square foot. Next week I will have a more comprehensive look at 2015 and some analysis on what 2016 might bring. Until then, this is the last weekend of a long and fun holiday, so enjoy the day and get ready the year ahead.

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Maricopa Market Update December 19, 2015

The number of available subdivision homes ticked up once again over the last 7 days with 362 homes now listed on the MLS at an average of $96.99 per square foot. 148 homes are currently under contract, down from 158 the week prior and it was another good week in sales as 34 homes sold over the last 7 days, selling at an average of $83.68 per square foot and bringing our YTD numbers now to 1,462 homes sold at an average of $78.53 per square foot. By comparison, 1,284 homes sold through the same time period last year at an average of $75.08 per square foot, which translates to a 13.8% increase in sales and a 4.5% increase in the average sold price per square foot.

So the tightening of economic policy has begun. Janet Yellin took the bold move of raising the rate by a quarter point this week after 7 years of a zero Fed interest rate and signaled that more modest increases were possible. At this point now you have to take her seriously. Yellin indicated that she would gradually raise the rate if the economic measures of labor and inflation remain steady and considering the fall of oil prices it is likely that inflation will not worsen any time soon, and knowing that the unemployment rate is a highly manipulative number, I think another quarter point raise in the rate is likely within the next 6 months. So how does this effect mortgage rates?
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Maricopa Market Update December 12, 2015

Holy November, Batman. November sales proved to be the strongest of the year and I will have more on the in just a bit. First of all there was a slight drop in the number of subdivision homes available over the last week, the first weekly decline in over a month with 354 homes now listed on the MLS at an average of $96.90 per square foot. 159 homes are currently under contract, down from 165 the week prior, and it was another decent week in sales with 23 homes closing escrow and selling at an average of $83.57 per square foot, bringing our YTD numbers now to 1,427 homes sold at an average of $78.41 per square foot. Earlier this year I was convinced the average sold price per square foot would reach the $80 mark, but that trajectory did level off a bit over the summer. The good news is that the 4% appreciation in that measure is on a firm foundation.
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Maricopa Market Update December 5, 2015

The number of available homes remains consistent over the last week with 362 subdivision homes listed on the MLS at an average of $96.55 per square foot. 163 homes are currently under contract, quite a drop from last week’s number of 186, and consequently it was a good week in sales with 31 homes closing escrow over the last 7 days and selling at an average of $84.05 per square foot bringing our YTD numbers now to 1,403 homes sold at an average of $78.33 per square foot. As we near the year’s end and after a couple of good weeks in sales, the Maricopa market is now tracking at a 12.8% increase in homes sold and a 4.6% increase in the average sold price per square foot.
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Maricopa Market Update November 28, 2015

The number of subdivision homes inched up once again over the last week, now standing at 365 homes listed on the MLS at an average of $96.14 per square foot. 186 homes are currently under contract, down from 198 the week prior and it was a good week in sales as 29 homes sold over the last 7 days, selling at an average of $86.20 per square foot and bringing our YTD numbers now to 1,369 homes sold at an average of $78.20 per square foot. By comparison, 1,227 homes had sold for the same time period last year at an average of $74.88 per square foot, so currently the Maricopa market is tracking at a 11.5% increase in homes sold and a 4.4% increase in the average sold price per square foot. Also, while the residential market in Maricopa has nearly fully recovered from the 2008 crash, about 8% of the listings are distressed properties and in a market where you have a combination of distressed properties and a healthy new build market, you will likely have a large gap in the low end of the market to the high end, and we do. The YTD sold price per square foot on the low end is $36.27 to a YTD high of $160.76. I hope all of you had an enjoyable Thanksgiving holiday with your friends and family as I have and will continue to do, so I will be back next week with more detailed market insights. Have another great week.

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Maricopa Market Update November 21, 2015

So now that the number of MLS listings are on the increase, and providing for a good selection of homes, will buyer demand strengthen? 362 subdivision homes are currently listed on the MLS at an average of $96.56 per square foot. 15 homes went under contract in the last 7 days bringing that number now to 198 homes currently under contract, and it is was yet another soft week in sales as just 16 homes sold over the last week, selling at an average of $86.65 per square foot, and bringing our YTD numbers now to 1,337 homes sold at an average of $78.01 per square foot. We still remain about 11% up over last year in terms of homes sold but October was the first month of the year where the market saw a decline in month over month sales, and so far November is tracking just slightly above November 2014. However, if 2015 finishes up with a 10% increase in homes sold following the seven year low in sales that was 2014, then I think that will be a good foundation to build on for 2016.

Let’s take a quick look at YTD sell through by purchase price. 81% of all subdivision homes sold YTD in Maricopa have been under the price point of $200,000. Conversely, only 5% of all homes sold YTD have been over the price point of $250,000. Here’s the breakdown:
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Maricopa Market Update November 14, 2015

For the fifth consecutive week, the number of available subdivision homes is on the rise with 360 homes now listed on the MLS at an average of $95.45 per square foot, up from 348 available homes the week prior. 182 homes are currently under contract up from 175, and it was a very average week in sales with 17 homes selling over the last 7 days, selling at an average of $76.70 per square foot. The residential market has been remarkably consistent this year with the increase in homes sold remaining right in the 10% range and the increase in the average sold price per square foot staying consistent in the 4% range, both of which are good barometers. Sales for 2014 in terms of subdivision homes sold was a 7 year low point so it is good to see sales increases, and more importantly positive appreciation rates.

So let’s take a look at October’s numbers and YTD numbers. Sales of single-family subdivision homes declined 3.8% month over month for October, with 125 homes sold in October 2015 versus 130 for October 2014. The average sold price however of those subdivision homes increased by just over 10% with the current average at $164,878 versus last year’s average $149,673. Total dollar volume for October 2015 of $20.6 million was an increase of just 2.8% over last October’s volume of $20 million and interestingly enough, that volume was generated on almost 30% fewer listings than this time last year. The average number of listings market wide, including acreage property for October 2015 was 389 versus last October’s average of 551. The number of cash buyers continues to hold steady at 17% of October’s activity, and 52% of all purchases were subject to either an FHA or VA loan.
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Maricopa Market Update November 7, 2015

For the fourth consecutive week the number of available homes is on the increase with 348 subdivision homes now available, up from 335 the week prior, and listed at an average of $95.37 per square foot. 175 homes are currently under contract, down from 184 the week prior and it was good week in sales as 30 homes sold over the last 7 days, selling at an average of $84.24 per square foot and bringing our YTD numbers now to 1,301 homes sold at an average of $77.92 per square foot. By comparison, through the same time period last year 1,167 homes had sold at an average of $74.91 per square foot, a year over year increase of 11.4% in homes sold and a 4% increase in the average sold price per square foot.
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